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Vladimir Panov: The “tracks” to implementing the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor project have been laid

Vladimir Panov: The “tracks” to implementing the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor project have been laid

Arctic.ru: Discover how Russia implements its development goals in the Arctic and the Far East

2026-06-10T10:00

2026-06-10T10:00

2026-06-11T11:47

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According to Rosatom Special Representative for the Development in the Arctic Vladimir Panov, interaction in the Arctic should be based on pragmatism, not geopolitics. Speaking in an interview with Arctic.ru on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, he said that the Middle East crisis had reflected on interest in freight shipping on the Northern Sea Route. He also outlined approaches towards developing the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor project and explained why the Arctic would be Russia’s “treasure house” for years to come.- Mr. Panov, the current Gulf crisis has impacted on shipping not only in the Middle East region but also in the World Ocean as a whole. How has it reflected on prospects for freight haulage on the Northern Sea Route? Can we say that the present-day tensions have made various states pay an increased interest in NSR cargo shipping?Vladimir Panov: There are two aspects to this problem, which I will try to highlight. First, there are objective circumstances that tend to evoke interest towards the Northern Sea Route. During the past 200 years, the population of Planet Earth has grown eight times over. This means that mankind consumes increasingly more resources. There are, of course, traditional areas that account for the bulk of hydrocarbon production. But sooner or later we will need new fields.In this sense, the Arctic and, as a consequence, the Northern Sea Route, or the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, is a source of energy needed by each and every country, particularly countries in Southeast Asia, whose economic growth rates, let alone birthrates, are far ahead of those in Europe, for example.Advanced technologies and new energy have made NSR shipping safer, this leading to a situation where the route’s further development is powered by the production of diverse natural resources and expansion to new export markets, primarily those in the APR. We can describe this trend as inertia-driven. In other words, any project in the Arctic is not implemented within a day or a month. It takes years, starting from exploration for minerals and to the drafting of the project itself with its logistics and other things.Second, the events in the Strait of Hormuz have shown to many countries that they are highly vulnerable in terms of energy security. In fact, all the trodden freight routes have all of a sudden become incapacitated. There are questions facing these countries. How can they diversify their risks? What can be done for greater energy security? What is to be done in the future? And they start looking to the Arctic, to the Northern Sea Route, and to the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor.This cannot be decided within a second, of course. But, speaking about energy resources, we have major projects conducted by the Novatek and Gazprom Oil companies. Preparations are nearly over for launching a mammoth project, Vostok-Oil. And, of course, prerequisites are being created for a new level of cooperation on the Northern Sea Route and in the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, for new talks.You are right: we are witnessing a situational surge of interest in the NSR. The session on the Arctic at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was attended by representatives of five countries, who discussed the outlook for the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor. This year, for example, we had word from South Korea that it would launch its first pilot NSR voyage. But it is important to understand that this cannot be arranged at a snap of your fingers.Yet, there is one exception to this rule. The thing is that there are two periods of navigation on the Northern Sea Route. The main period, which lasts nine months from November to July, is when the waterway is covered by ice. Accordingly, shipping is only safe if you have Arctic-class vessels. During the months from March to May, however, this must be Arc7 only.And also there is a short navigation period lasting for three months from August to November, when the NSR is almost ice-free. Right now, there is some situational interest precisely in this three-month period, when any vessel, including one lacking ice-class characteristics, can be easily redirected to the NSR from, say, the Suez Canal, provided she meets certain requirements. And we see various countries and international companies pay heightened interest in this time slot.- Freight traffic statistics highlight Northern Sea Route development trends. How many consignments were transported in the first five months of 2026? How does this compare with a similar period of 2025?Vladimir Panov: We have already delivered over 15 million metric tons, and we are exceeding last year’s volumes by about 14 percent. Our forecast shows that 40 million metric tons of freight will be delivered via the Northern Sea Route throughout 2026. We are expecting to set this new record.The last five months were among the most difficult periods in terms of the ice situation when Arc7 vessels or Arctic-class supply vessels, escorted by icebreakers, could operate on the Northern Sea Route. Only Russian operators work during this period, and consignments are shipped from Russian projects alone. This shows that our projects are adapting effectively to current realities.Regarding international freight traffic, I would like to recall that the first, 20-day, international transit trip from Ningbo, China, to Felixtowe in the United Kingdom was conducted last year. The ship sailed rapidly via the Northern Sea Route in just under six days. The traditional route via the Suez Canal is much longer. I would like to draw attention to this fact, while explaining heightened interest in the short navigation period via the NSP.- Two years ago, Rosatom and China’s NewNew Shipping Line (NNSL) signed an agreement on establishing a joint venture that would manufacture container carriers for the Northern Sea Route. What has been accomplished during this period?Vladimir Panov: We estimate that construction deadlines will be met in 2028 and 2029. A protype container carrier has been designed, and we are now moving to implement new stages. But I would rather not go into details here.Nevertheless, I would like to note the systemic work of the NewNew Shipping Line via the Northern Sea Route. When I became acquainted with the company’s top managers, their vessel was being loaded in St. Petersburg. After we were introduced to each other, they said that they wished we had met earlier because they wanted to transit the Northern Sea very much, but that they were running out of time. However, we supported them and helped them obtain a permit for one pilot trip. In 2023, NNSL completed seven trips, followed by 14 trips in 2024 and 23 trips last year.They are also planning to conduct large-scale operations on the Northern Sea Route throughout 2026. It is important to note that NNSL is planning to transport about one million metric tons of container shipments in 2027; this volume is quite impressive. It is possible to deliver these volumes only when economic aspects of specific projects are duly assessed, and when more competitive rates are offered, compared to the Suez Canal. Therefore, we can see that the Northern Sea Route concept is evolving into economic pragmatism right before our very eyes.We find it interesting to deal with Chinese partners, including when they voice proposals on more effective cooperation with our port infrastructure. Foreigners’ opinions help us evaluate the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route and to obtain feedback. Most importantly, they expose all “bottlenecks.”- You have repeatedly, in your addresses at various venues and in interviews, discussed in detail the unified digital platform for the Northern Sea Route. This is not merely a necessary element, but, perhaps, even a critically important one for implementing projects along the NSR. What is the current status of this platform?Vladimir Panov: First of all, the very creation of this platform was a major milestone for us, one preceded by many years of arduous work. It is, in a sense, a truly unique information system – one that, as of today, simply has no equivalent anywhere in the world.The platform integrates all hydrographic and meteorological data along the NSR. A key component of the system, built from the ground up, is the onboard measurement suite installed on every icebreaker. Ice has one highly complex characteristic that cannot be measured from space – its thickness. The onboard measurement suite transmits, effectively in real time, data on ice conditions and actual ice thickness – including via video recording – to the unified digital platform. This provides operational information and creates a comprehensive operational picture.A vessel traversing ice fields is not the same as a car driving along a highway, where digital services allow us to learn about a traffic jam ahead and bypass it. With ice charts, matters are far more complex. The wind may shift, for example, and that also affects transit along the route. The world’s leading center of expertise on this matter is the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, which is part of the Rosgidromet (Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the Russian Federation) structure; it provides highly accurate forecasts. Over the past several years, our colleagues there have carried out extensive work to improve both the quality and the quantity of forecasts.However, the actual routing is performed either by the Marine Operations Headquarters or by the shipper, if they have such infrastructure. Alternatively, the vessel’s captain makes the decision. I am elaborating on this because the crux of the matter cannot be described otherwise. The point is exactly that the human factor can still influence decision-making. There have been cases where, for instance, a captain made his own decision despite conflicting recommendations from the Marine Operations Headquarters, and the vessel entered an ice field, with its speed dropping to 2 knots. Had the captain adhered to the recommended route, the speed would have held at 8 to 9 knots – that is the difference. Any professional understands that if, hypothetically, a vessel’s daily charter rate is on the order of $150,000, then the difference in transit speed immediately translates into substantial sums of money. And our task is precisely to help every cargo shipper and every shipping company ensure their voyages are as efficient as possible in ice conditions.As such, the unified digital platform offers shippers the opportunity to conduct voyages at the lowest possible cost. Route calculations are performed automatically, factoring in current hydrometeorological conditions and the ice condition data received from the onboard measurement suites. Shipowners and the Marine Operations Headquarters select the start and end points of the route, input the parameters of the specific vessel, assign the icebreaker that will escort it, and the most cost-effective route is calculated.Naturally, there is still much work ahead, – upgrading the platform from, shall we say, version 1.0 to version 2.0, – but the very first and most important step has been taken. Figuratively speaking, one can now open a laptop and display on the screen how everything is calculated. This is a tremendous achievement; nothing like this existed before.- There is currently much discussion about the growth drivers of the Northern Sea Route and, more broadly, the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor. These include the Yenisei Gulf and the Gulf of Ob. The ports of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk are currently under development. In your view, what other growth drivers are possible along this route?Vladimir Panov: As for the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, you are absolutely correct: port infrastructure has already taken shape. And, as part of the implementation of investment projects, everything necessary for the development of these ports has been planned. It is also worth mentioning Cape Naglyoynyn, where a project to develop the Baimskaya ore zone will be implemented.However, the development of the TATC will inevitably follow the path we are currently observing in all maritime shipping – namely, the trend of increasing vessel size. Yes, this will be constrained by natural and ice conditions. But since Novatek has already demonstrated that the operation of large-tonnage 100,000-ton vessels on the Northern Sea Route is both efficient and safe, there is already a demand for the development of deep-water ports as a strategic objective.One example: the most advanced in terms of preparation and depth of study is currently the deep-water port project for Arkhangelsk. We are carrying out this work jointly with the governor of the Arkhangelsk Region. As of today, both the cargo base feasibility study and the financial and economic model have been completed. Our partners at VEB.RF are currently verifying this financial and economic model. As for other potential projects, there is the port of Indiga on the coast of the Barents Sea. Additionally, we have discussed with the governor of Chukotka an interesting idea, – making the port of Provideniya a similar hub.- Why that one?Vladimir Panov: The fact is, the farther north the transshipment point is located, the sooner a high Arctic-class vessel is freed up. In other words, the earlier the transshipment takes place, the faster the vessel returns, and the fewer Arctic-class vessels are needed. From there onward, delivery further down the line to the consumer, to Asia-Pacific countries, can be carried out by vessels of either a lower Arctic class or no Arctic class at all. Therefore, in this regard, the port of Provideniya looks highly promising.It is also important, of course, to mention one more project we are discussing with the leadership of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). This is the deep-water port of Nayba. There as well, a very significant cluster of deposits and projects is emerging that could form a cargo base. As such, these four deep-water ports are promising in terms of developing the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor.- The strategic documents on the development of the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route were developed about five years ago. The geopolitical situation has greatly changed since then. Do you think these documents should be updated? Are these new risk factors being incorporated in the development plans of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor?Vladimir Panov: First of all, we not simply should but must update these documents. The President has already issued instructions on updating the Arctic development strategy. The Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and the Arctic led by Yury Trutnev has accomplished this task and submitted the updated document for consideration. I suppose that this is the final stage of this work.The new strategic document certainly takes the new realities of Arctic development into account. You have justly said that the previous variant of this strategy stipulated cooperation with foreign countries, our Arctic neighbors on the left side of the map. The case in point is the Arctic Council, which includes eight member states and eight observer countries. The eight member states are seven NATO countries and Russia, which accounts for 60 percent of the global Arctic shoreline. It would be naïve to think in the current conditions that the format of the Arctic Council can benefit Russia; at the very best, it will not be harmful to it. Therefore, new strategic documents are taking this into consideration.It is vital to see that Arctic development cannot be based on any country’s ambitions. We remember how the US President recently compared the number of icebreakers in Russia and the United States, and that comparison did not favor America. The US President promised to catch up with Russia in this respect.But the fundamental difference is that the industrial development of the Russian Arctic began in the late 1930s with the establishment of the Norilsk nickel plant. The entire country joined forces to build it, and it was clear why we did that. But you can’t reach Norilsk by railway, and so all cargoes were delivered to it by sea and its products were transported by sea as well. The launch of the Norilsk plant was a challenging economic project that boosted Arctic development. In 1959, the Soviet Union built its first nuclear-powered icebreaker. Technologies improved, becoming ever more complicated, and have become the core of cutting-edge development of the Arctic. In a sense, we are relying on the economy and revenue to continue developing that vast expanse with government support.That is why Russia has unique best practices of Arctic development. Under the new strategy, Arctic cooperation must be based on a pragmatic approach. It is obvious that geopolitical realities have changed. However, during the SPIEF panel session you have mentioned, representatives of the five participating countries talked about the pragmatic aspects of cooperation with Russia. They did not speak about geopolitics but about pragmatism because cooperation is based on the long-term trends we discussed at the beginning of this interview, including the growth of population and increased resource consumption.- There’s a lot of talk these days about the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor. You yourself recently said that this year will be the year of the TATC. Where does the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor stand today, and what will be accomplished within this project by the end of the year? How do you see it developing?Vladimir Panov: First, it’s important to clarify the fundamental difference between the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor (TATC). Regulation of traffic along the NSR is based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The convention includes a separate article stating that, to protect the environment in waters where ice is present for more than six months a year, a coastal state may establish its own navigation regime.Why must all voyages along the Northern Sea Route obtain permission? Because the Maritime Convention grants Russia that right. And the Northern Sea Route, as defined in the Merchant Shipping Code, is currently limited to two points: the Kara Gate and the Bering Strait. That is 3,000 nautical miles. And as we have already noted, ice is present there for nine months of the year.Now, regarding what the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor is and how we envision it. As of today, there is no official definition of this route. It is no coincidence that I said 2026 would be the year of the TATC – because thanks to the updated Arctic strategy, with the support of the Maritime Board, the government, and federal executive bodies, a unified definition will emerge, and we’ll be able to move forward from there.It’s important to understand that the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor is not just the maritime component from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok. It also includes all access routes – waterways, rivers, rail, and pipelines. In other words, anything that can help build a cargo base on competitive economic terms will be part of the TATC.There is a specific directive from the President of Russia, and the government is expected to complete work on approving the TATC’s financial and economic model by September 1. This is the first time such a complex and comprehensive document has been created. It must define how to combine private and public investment, as well as the rules for implementing those investments. This is important because both the Northern Sea Route and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor involve risks that the state helps mitigate.State support measures are necessary for major investment projects – for example, the construction of large hydraulic structures or nuclear icebreakers. Other support measures are also needed, such as tax incentives. So, to sum up, the financial and economic model is the most important building block in the foundation of the TATC.- The most important, but obviously not the only one?Vladimir Panov: Absolutely. The second building block is the organizational model. At the SPIEF session, it was discussed that Rosatom is working on the financial and economic model, the Ministry of Transport is responsible for all inland waterways, Russian Railways is responsible for all access routes to ports, and the Ministry of Energy is responsible for pipelines. Developing the TATC is a complex undertaking, and an organizational model – spelling out who is responsible for what and who bears which responsibilities – is crucial.Therefore, the TATC’s organizational model must also be approved by September 1. Furthermore, at the President’s direction, a separate comprehensive plan for the development of the Arctic and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor is expected to be released this year. This plan will translate both the financial and economic and organizational models into a list of specific measures aimed at achieving all target indicators.So, figuratively speaking, we’ve already laid the ‘track’ from the TATC's concept to its implementation. Of course, this year will be challenging in terms of the volume of work, but I hope that in the end, it will prove highly effective.

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expert opinion, rosatom state corporation, northern sea route, infrastructure, economy